Path to the National Championship

I have it all figured out, and it really isn't rocket science. To be honest, it is quite rational and highly likely.

Ohio State will be in the 2010 BCS National Championship Game in Pasadena, CA on Thursday, January 7th on ABC.

How is this possible you ask? Let's break it down...

These are the current projected BCS rankings (the first official poll will be released on Sunday afternoon) :

1. Florida Gators (undefeated)

2. Alabama Crimson Tide (undefeated)

3. Virginia Tech Hokies (one loss)

4. Texas Longhorns (undefeated)

5. Boise State (undefeated)

6. USC (one loss)

7. LSU (one loss)

8. OHIO STATE (one loss)

9. Cincinnati (undefeated)

10. Iowa (undefeated)

You must be a conference champion to play for the national championship. Keep that in mind as we continue...

Florida or Alabama will be eliminated from championship contention by virtue of this rule. Theoretically, this moves OSU ahead a spot. Oh, wait, make that two spots because Boise State will never play for the national championship and if OSU keeps winning they would ultimately jump the WAC powerhouse.

This leaves teams like Texas, Virginia Tech, USC and LSU ahead of the Buckeyes. Hmmm.... what did I say about the SEC? Only one team will qualify, and there are three teams ahead of the Buckeyes. Eliminate LSU from this conversation, please. They aren't good enough.

Texas hasn't looked quite up to par this season, and have a legitimate shot to lose this weekend to Oklahoma, if not down the stretch. If they lose a game, and win out to win the Big 12 championship then they will probably get to the big dance. I don't think this will happen, though. I have a hunch that Oklahoma will win out by virtue of having a better defense and having their Heisman winning QB back from injury. A two loss OU team wins the Big 12, eliminating Texas.

Virginia Tech and USC are the only two teams in the way of the Buckeyes at this point. If you look from a historical standpoint, the ACC teams will all beat up on each other leaving a 2 or 3 loss conference champion. I don't see why this season won't be any different. I like Virginia Tech, but only as a two loss conference champion. Bump the Hokies from contention.

It comes down to USC again????? That just isn't fair. Well, technically it is fair because the Trojans took down the beloved Buckeyes back on September 12th, but you know what I mean. USC has to play on the road at Notre Dame and red hot Oregon, while also needing to not fall prey to yet another low level opponent.

In short: if USC's competence against lesser opponents, matched with two tough road games, is what stands in front of OSU getting to the national championship game against the SEC champion (I assume), then I guess I am somewhat confident.

Oh, and Cincinnati will lose. It's not even a conversation to be had, really.

Here is how I see things shaking up at the end of the season....

Rose Bowl-

Oregon (10-2) vs Boise State (12-0) ...... I picked this simply for intrigue purposes

Sugar Bowl-

Alabama (12-1) vs Virginia Tech (11-2)

Fiesta Bowl-

Texas (11-1) vs USC (10-2)

Orange Bowl-

South Florida (10-2) vs Oklahoma (11-2)

BCS National Championship Game-

Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1) vs Florida Gators (13-0)

By the way, I understand OSU and its inept offense have to win out in order to play for the national championship.

I also understand that the offense WILL improve, and that this defense is just as good as Alabama's, Florida's, etc.

Alabama features sheer power; Florida pure speed. OSU has a little bit of everything.

Games of the Week/Big Ten Rundown 7

#18/20 Oklahoma (3-2) vs #2/3 Texas (5-0) in Dallas -

The annual Red River Rivalry (aka the Red River Shootout) always has a lot at stake simply because it is one of the best rivalries in college football. It was supposed to be one of the greatest this season, yet has failed to live up to the hype. The reason? Sam Bradford's injury in their season opening loss to BYU. You figure that if Bradford was healthy the Sooners would have been able to at least fend off BYU and more than likely beat Miami. Regardless, it looks like Oklahoma has everything to gain and Texas has everything to lose. The Longhorns have A LOT of pressure to win this game. I feel like Colt McCoy is the QB to get it done for Texas this season, yet Oklahoma has way too much to prove in this game. I liked Texas all throughout the off season to beat their rivals, however I am calling for the upset as Oklahoma upsets the Longhorns to remain in the race to win the Big 12 championship.

Prediction:

Oklahoma- 30

Texas- 24

#5/6 USC (4-1) @ #25/25 Notre Dame (4-1) -

Does anyone else feel as if the Fighting Irish should be ranked a little bit higher considering all the praise that ESPN gives them? I think they might deserve to be slightly higher, but not too much higher considering how they had to fend off both Washington and Purdue late, and needed a lot of luck to beat Michigan State. Despite these close losses, it seems as if Charlie Weis has the tools to finally beat the Trojans. Good luck with that one, Chuck. I like USC to go into South Bend, run the football effectively, and open up the game for Matt Barkley throwing the ball down field to his talented receivers. It won't be pretty early, but it will be beautiful late in the game for USC when they shut down Jimmy Clausen and the Irish.

Prediction:

USC- 34

ND- 17

#4/4 Virginia Tech (5-1) @ #19/20 Georgia Tech (5-1) -

Everyone is sleeping on Georgia Tech. Why? They have one of the top rushing offenses in the country to go along with an improved passing attack. I don't have many reasons behind what I'm about to say, but I think Virginia Tech will lose one more game this season...and this is it. I love Virginia Tech's team, but I like them just enough to say that they finish 10-2 and then go on to win the ACC championship. Georgia Tech gets one more touchdown that VT in a surprising defensive battle en route to an upset of the fourth ranked Hokies.

Prediction:

GT- 23

VT- 16

Big Ten Rundown...

Michigan fell to Iowa (expectingly), and everything else went as expected I suppose. Look for this week to fall under the same category....with the exception of Iowa going down in Madison.

#7/7 Ohio State (5-1) @ Purdue (1-5) : TBA

Wisconsin (5-1) over #11/12 Iowa (6-0)

#13/14 Penn State (5-1) over Minnesota (4-2)

Michigan (4-2) over Delaware State

Michigan State (3-3) over Northwestern (4-2)

Illinois (1-4) over Indiana (3-3)

UPSET ALERT!!!!

This week in college football might as well be considered a trap for any favored team playing, because there are way too many upset alert games for the majority of top 25 teams. The traps have been set to snare many unsuspecting victims this week, but who will lose? Let's look at the match ups...

#11/12 Iowa (6-0) @ Wisconsin (5-1) -

I will go ahead and say that Iowa has a legit defense, a great head coach and seems to have an aura about them in clutch situations this season. I will call their bluff and say that they will lose to an extremely physical Wisconsin football team. The Badgers will remind Iowa that offense is a key to winning football games 9 times out of 10, and the Hawkeyes won't be able to muster enough points. Verdict: UPSET

#22/22 South Carolina (5-1) @ #2/3 Alabama (6-0) -

In the SEC many greats teams haven fallen to seemingly unworthy opponents, yet still go on to achieve great things (see Florida or LSU the past three seasons). This could be yet another example. The Gamecocks have a swagger on defense to go with much improved play by QB Stephen Garcia which has led to some great victories this season, most especially the win over Ole Miss. I guess I will go with some simple math here: SC beat Ole Miss close, while Bama killed the Rebels. In short, Bama will beat South Carolina in a close game. Stupid equations aside, I do think Alabama will almost fall to South Carolina but will be too powerful along the line of scrimmage in the fourth quarter for coach Spurrier's team to handle. Verdict: No Upset.

#8/9 Cincinnati (5-0) @ #21/21 South Florida (5-0) -

I don't need to explain myself here, and I will go ahead and say what everyone already knows I'm going to say: Cincinnati will lose Thursday night. South Florida was my preseason favorite to win the Big East conference, and has proven to be just as powerful of a team without star QB Matt Groethe. I won't back off of them now, seeing as how they have improved each and every week this season. UC won't be able to generate enough defensive stops and USF will send the "best team in Ohio" back home with an even bigger chip on their shoulder as usual. GO BULLS! Verdict: BIG TIME UPSET

My Top 10 - Week Seven

1. Florida (5-0, vs Arkansas)

2. Alabama (6-0, vs South Carolina)

3. Texas (5-0, vs Oklahoma)

4. Virginia Tech (5-1, @ Georgia Tech)

5. USC (4-1, @ Notre Dame)

6. Ohio State (5-1, @ Purdue)

7. Boise State (5-0 , @ Tulsa)

8. Iowa (6-0, @ Wisconsin)

9. Cincinnati (5-0, @ South Florida)

10. LSU (5-1, Bye Week)

outside looking in....

TCU

Penn State

Miami, FL

Oregon

Game 6- #8/8 Ohio State (4-1, 2-0) vs #25 Wisconsin (5-0, 2-0)

Where: Ohio Stadium

When: 3:30 EST

TV: ABC Regional (ESPN or ESPN2 in some areas)

This game brings back a lot of memories for me, which mostly are negative ones. I became a big time fan of OSU football near the tail end of the Cooper era that featured two straight home losses to Wisconsin to end his career. One of which was against the eventual Rose Bowl champions in 1999 that saw the Buckeyes take a 17-0 halftime lead. Wisconsin won 42-17. In 2001, Tressel's first year on the job inheriting what Cooper had left at OSU, OSU was once again up 17-0 only to see that lead diminish into a 20-17 loss to Wisconsin. Since Tressel has taken over, the series is knotted up at 3-3. Why is this stat important? Well, not only does it show that these games have been extremely physical and competitive, but also that Tressel does not have a winning record against the Badgers. They are the ONLY team that Tressel doesn't have a winning record against. This game may not seem big in terms of their ranking (only ranked in one poll at #25) or in terms of how this game may not even end up registering a blip on the Big Ten championship radar, but it is big for Jim Tressel and this Ohio State football team. If they beat Wisconsin, they generally own every single team in their conference. That's a lot of incentive in my opinion.

It will obviously be a physical contest, featuring a mistake free QB at Wisconsin named Scott Tolzien and a strong, big bodied RB John Clay and a typical large Badger offensive line, but the defense does not impress me that much. They have had to survive many football games this season by registering three turnovers or more against inferior competition. If Wisconsin can achieve three turnovers in this football game, then I guess they deserve to win. However, the weather is looking calm and cool without any precipitation, and OSU has been holding on to the ball relatively well lately (they average a turnover a game when the weather is fine...which isn't good but I'm just saying it's not bad either). I know that OSU had fumbilitis against Illinois, but there was a downpour for that entire game. Throughout the game, there will be moments where Wisconsin will be knocking on the door and have an opportunity to seize momentum. I know the Buckeye defense far too well to know that Wisconsin won't have a prayer in doing much of anything consistently throughout the day.

I expect a defensive battle for the first half, with Terrelle Pryor, Brandon Saine and Boom Herron taking control of the game for the Buckeyes in the second half. The defense will score a touchdown late to seal it, and OSU will march on to 5-1 with an undefeated record in the Big Ten. If Iowa loses to Michigan, then the Bucks will have sole possession of first place in the conference. Why is that important in early October? I suppose it is not that important....I just hope that Ohio State will be #1 come the end of November and USC is #1 in the Pac 10....

Prediction:

Ohio State- 31

Wisconsin- 13

Games of the Week/ Big Ten Rundown 6

#1/1 Florida (4-0) @ #4/4 LSU (5-0) -

If Tim Tebow can't go in this one, then LSU should win this game. Losing a Tim Tebow isn't something that can be fixed by simply putting in another guy who can run the system effectively. You are losing the heart, soul and fire behind the undefeated, defending national champions. With all of this aside, I do think that Tebow plays in this game because, as I mentioned before, he is the heart of this team and will refuse to not play in a game on such a big stage. It will be close heading into the fourth quarter, but Tebow will lead a touchdown drive to secure the lead while the stellar defense will do the rest. LSU will prove they aren't a joke, but Florida will be Florida and win this big game.

Prediction:

Florida- 28

LSU- 20

#3/3 Alabama (5-0) @ #16/20 Ole Miss (3-1) -

Another big time SEC showdown will define this week's action, although I don't see it being quite as intriguing as a Florida-LSU match up. In my opinion, Alabama is the most well balanced team in college football and are most suited to play for the national title and win if the game were being played today. The Crimson Tide defense should do everything in their power to keep Ole Miss from pulling any fast ones early in the game, and will force Mississippi QB Jeavan Snead to win the game with his arm. He will throw for two touchdowns, but it will be too late. Alabama will already be up by several touchdowns.

Prediction:

Alabama- 30

Ole Miss- 14

Michigan (4-1) @ #12/14 Iowa (5-0) -

Iowa is widely considered to be the favorite to win the Big Ten after beating Penn State in Happy Valley. Am I buying into that? Well, they are a safe team to pick because they are physical, they run the football well, their QB doesn't make mistakes and they have a hell of a coach. I am highly unimpressed with their offensive production, though, and think that their defense is beatable. Michigan will come into Iowa City and put A LOT of scare into the Hawkeye faithful, but Iowa's defense will step up and make some plays down the stretch to secure a very close victory. What?? Michigan is human after everyone declared them back among the conference's elite?? Who saw that coming??? .....I did....

Prediction:

Iowa- 23

UM- 17

Big Ten Rundown-

Other than Ohio State, Iowa and Wisconsin, no one is looking too awesome at the moment. Penn State and Michigan have both dropped games that they should've won, while everyone else just loses it seems like. Iowa and Wisconsin are both 5-0, while OSU might as well be 5-0 after the way they played against USC. Their three point loss to the Trojans was probably the best thing to happen to Big Ten football since...well...when OSU won the national title after the 2002 season. An undefeated team might fall this weekend in conference play. But who will it be: Iowa or Wisconsin?

Wisconsin (5-0) @ Ohio State (4-1) TBA

Michigan State (2-3) over Illinois (1-3) Dantonio has this team focused after a rough start.

Iowa (5-0) over Michigan (4-1) Too much defense for the little QB that could Tate Forcier.

Minnesota (3-2) over Purdue (1-4) Purdue just can't play defense. Minnesota can score a lot.

Penn State (4-1) over Eastern Illinois (????) Who cares.

Northwestern (3-2) over Miami OH (0-5) Who cares, part II.

Indiana (3-2) over Virginia (1-3) FIRE AL GROH!! He's done at Virginia...for real this time.

My Top 10 - Week Six

1. Florida (4-0, @ LSU)

2. Alabama (5-0, @ Ole Miss)

3. Texas (4-0, vs Colorado)

4. LSU (5-0, vs Florida)

5. Virginia Tech (4-1, vs Boston College)

6. Boise State (5-0, Bye Week)

7. USC (4-1, @ Notre Dame)

8. Ohio State (4-1, vs Wisconsin)

9. Cincinnati (5-0, Bye Week)

10. TCU (4-0, @ Air Force)

Outside Looking In...

Iowa (5-0)

Oklahoma State (4-1)

Miami, FL (3-1)

Oregon (4-1)

Penn State (4-1)

I finally backed down on ranking Ohio State ahead of USC. I do believe that OSU is a better team than the Trojans, however it is wasted energy to still be stewing about that match up. I will worry about who should be ranked higher if it comes down to earning a national title bid....

The Florida-LSU match up suddenly looks like it could be a hell of a game with HUGE national title implications. I don't think LSU will be in the national title conversation because Alabama should beat them, Ole Miss is still hanging around and Florida is clearly better, but you never know in this day and age who will win what games. I was completely wrong about this LSU team (especially their defense), so I expect a classic in Baton Rouge Saturday night.